When
fighter aircraft from NATO-member Turkish and Chinese air forces
conducted their first joint air exercises in Turkish airspace in
September 2010, few people guessed that could be the beginning of a
broader defense and security relationship. Four years later, the big
three in Asia are on a determined course to replace some of Turkey’s
traditional ties with NATO allies.
The breakthrough came from
South Korea in 2001 when Turkey signed a $1 billion contract for the
acquisition of the T-155 self-propelled howitzer. Six years later, the
Korean aerospace powerhouse KAI won a nearly $500 million Turkish
contract to sell a batch of KT-1 basic trainer aircraft, followed by a
few years of silence. But presently they are seeking ways to find a slot
in Turkey’s indigenous fighter jet program, the TFX. If they do, that
will automatically reserve them a seat in the TX, a parallel program
designed to develop trainer aircraft for the TFX.
In recent
months, Japan, despite its pacifist constitution, came into the picture.
Since the mid-1990s, Turkey has been looking for a suitable engine for
the Altay, a new generation battle tank the Turks have been developing
over the past several years; and, luckily, Japan announced in 2008 that
it would manufacture its own tank — and an engine to power it — to
protect its homeland against a North Korean invasion. Ironically, the
technical support contract under the Altay program had gone to another
Asian player, South Korea’s Hyundai Rotem. Turkey and Japan are now in
declared talks, with the end goal that Japan shares its engine
technology to power the Altay under a “joint development” program.
Nice
idea if Mitsubishi Heavy Industries powered the Altay, but the reality
may not be so nice. “We have no idea if, technically speaking, that
engine could be suitable,” one senior Turkish defense procurement
official said. “There is more. We are not sure how many and how tight
the Japanese restrictions on export licenses would be. We don’t want to
be caught by a Japanese thunderstorm while running away from German
rain.”
But if the Turkish-Japanese plan goes ahead, it will mark a
historic departure from Turkey’s traditional engine supplier, MTU of
Germany. Sources say the Germans have been reluctant in powering the
Altay and sharing critical engine technology, as they also ponder what
to do when the Turks knock on their doors for export licenses that will
probably cover countries Berlin may not be eager to supply arms to.
Then
there is the curious case of China: more noteworthy than the Turkish
air force’s 2010 joint exercises with the Chinese air force was Ankara’s
Sept. 26 decision to open contract negotiations for a highly-sensitive
military program with a Chinese manufacturer that happens to be on a US
list of sanctions.
Defeating US, European and Russian rivals,
China Precision Machinery Import-Export Corp. (CPMIEC) won a first right
to open contract negotiations with Turkey to build the NATO ally’s
first long-range air and anti-missile defense structure. In the three
months since then, Turkey has been subjected to immense pressure from
its NATO allies, especially the United States, who have said that if
Turkey chooses to eventually award the $3.44 billion contract to the
Chinese company it thinks has breached the Iran, North Korea, Syria
Non-Proliferation Act, it would be deprived of a capability to make that
system interoperable with NATO and US air defense assets stationed on
Turkish soil — they make up more than half of Turkey’s entire air
defense structure. That would not be the full cost.
Any
Turkish defense company to take part in the Turkish-Chinese program
would also be subject to punishing US sanctions. To illustrate how
serious Washington is on nonproliferation, US investment bank Merrill
Lynch pulled out of a consortium hired to advise Turkish military
specialist Aselsan for its second public offering because “this company
was a potential partner of CPMIEC in the proposed air defense program.”
The Turks look defiant but are privately worried. The Chinese are
content because this is a big leap forward if they wanted to penetrate
into NATO markets. But they are nervous about the possibility of a
Turkish retreat in the face of US pressure.
Space is a
longer-term but prospective area for future Turkish-Chinese cooperation
as China reports remarkable advance in space-related programs and Turkey
is keen to develop its own – with help from a reliable mentor.
Last
December, a Turkish earth-observation satellite, Gokturk-2, was
launched from Jiuquan, China. Gokturk-2 successfully passed the Defense
Ministry’s acceptance tests on June 28. Turkey has plenty of other
satellite programs — even a plan to build satellite launching systems
and a testing center to cater for mushrooming satellite programs.
According to a government road map for military and civilian satellites,
Turkey plans to send into orbit a total of 16 satellites until 2020.
Space industry experts say the next five years’ satellite contracts
could amount to $2 billion.
“Turkey closely watches China's lunar
exploration programs,” Onur Haliloglu, a space technology director at
Turkey’s state scientific research institute TUBITAK, told China’s
official news agency, Xinhua, on Dec. 4. And according to Celal Sami
Tufekci, an assistant professor of mechatronics engineering at
Istanbul’s Yildiz University, Turkey could even develop a partnership
with China in designing astronaut programs. “Turkey needs an astronaut
program and in the near future the two countries could expand their
cooperation with the aim of sending astronauts to space,” he said.
Howitzers,
trainer aircraft, fighter jets, tank engines, air defense systems,
satellites and space programs were all ambitions the Turks would in the
past look to their Western allies to develop. Now they look to the east
for all.
“One reason for that is Turkey does not have any
political problems with any of the (Asian) countries it wishes to
cooperate with (in defense),” explained one senior diplomat in Ankara to
Al-Monitor. But that hardly explains the entire picture.
A
Defense Ministry official told Al-Monitor, “Turkey is increasingly wary
of technology transfer and licensing problems that have emerged in
several weapons programs with Western manufacturers and their
governments.”
It will be a difficult choice. “I am not sure if
Turkey could take the risk of ruining cooperation with conventional
allies for the sake of going east in a few controversial programs,” said
one London-based Turkey specialist. [via]
Monday, December 23, 2013
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